NFL Draft Prop Bets: Betting Odds and Picks - Fanduel

nfl draft prop bets 2020

nfl draft prop bets 2020 - win

2020 NFL Draft Overall Picks Odds & Prop Bets

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NFL Draft 2020 Prop Bets and Predictions

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2020 NFL Draft Overall Picks Odds & Prop Bets - Draft Begins Tonight (April 23rd, 2020) @ 8pm ET

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[Sports] - Tua Tagovailoa prop bet that could make or break NFL Draft 2020

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2020 NFL Draft Props - Expert Picks for 102 Props and 12 BEST BETS from The LEGEND - Only $15!

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Giving Away Money: 2020 NFL Draft prop bets for the Alabama Crimson Tide

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Bookmakers Betting On Props For 2020 NFL Draft

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2020 NFL Draft Betting Props - Will Justin Herbert Be the 2nd QB Drafted?

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Official r/NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Chiefs -- 12-1 The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2. Packers +2 10-3 There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3. Bills +2 10-3 For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4. Saints -1 10-3 This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5. Steelers -3 11-2 The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6. Rams -- 9-4 Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7. Colts +1 9-4 Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8. Titans +1 9-4 Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9. Seahawks +1 9-4 Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10. Ravens +2 8-5 This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11. Browns -4 9-4 Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12. Buccaneers -1 8-5 The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13. Dolphins -- 8-5 There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14. Cardinals +1 7-6 A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15. Raiders -1 7-6 The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16. Washington FT +3 6-7 Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17. Vikings -- 6-7 Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18. Bears +5 6-7 The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19. Patriots -3 6-7 Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20. 49ers -2 5-8 The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21. Broncos +5 5-8 Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22. Giants -2 5-8 It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23. Falcons -1 4-9 Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24. Panthers -3 4-9 I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25. Eagles +3 4-8-1 Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26. Lions -1 5-8 Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27. Chargers -- 4-9 First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28. Texans -4 4-9 The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29. Cowboys -- 4-9 The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30. Bengals -- 2-10-1 Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31. Jaguars -- 1-12 This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32. Jets -- 0-13 The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.
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Hey - One person believes we could win it all next year. That's something, right?

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NFL Prop Bets: Taking the Unders on QB passing yards despite scoring at an all-time high

Normally I post in the POTD threads bets I make on MLB underdogs or some standard NFL ATS or O/U bets. However, in the derivatives/ancillary markets, prop bets are known to be a soft spot in the armor of a sportsbook. A high hold, low limits, and inconsistent offerings have historically kept large bettors on the sidelines, and to be fully transparent, this is one of my first forays into seriously betting into the prop market.
BUT, after witnessing record scoring in the NFL this season, I decided to dig into yardage totals. What I found was a surprisingly inefficient props market that 1) shades against traditional bettor biases, 2) fails to capture injury and substitution (benching) risk, 3) doesn't account for the skew in the distribution of passing yards, and 4) misses the changing relationship between points and yards. Let's walk through these one-by-one.
1) BETTOR BIASES: It's commonly understood that the majority of recreational bettors enjoy betting overs. Life is too short to bet the under. As a result, sportsbooks often shade their lines higher for props to increase their profits on Over bets. This season, the average team passing yards per game is 264.5. The average line at DraftKings for all of the QB passing yardage props this week is 264.8. This might not seem like a big difference, but consider that the Seattle Seahawks (300.4 passing yards per game), Los Angeles Chargers (280.6), Las Vegas Raiders (288.4), and New Orleans Saints (273.8) are all on bye.
2) TOTAL YARDS VS STARTER YARDS : We are comparing team passing yards to the lines set by the sportsbook above. However, the prop wagers are for specific players, not the team as a whole. Because of injuries, trick/gadget plays, and in-game benchings (sorry Mitch Trubisky), aggregate team totals exceed the passing yards of the starting quarterback. The average passing yards for a starting quarterback this season is 256.5 yards.
3) DISTRIBUTION (AVERAGE VS MEDIAN) : Using the average passing yards for starting quarterbacks does not reflect the specific bet we are considering. The bet is binary - over or under - and thus it doesn't really matter if you win by 1 yard or 100 yards for the purposes of grading the bet. The more appropriate metric we should look at is median passing yards, which is the midpoint of the entire distribution of outcomes, where half of the outcomes are above the target and half are below. Due to an upward skew in the distribution of passing yards, the average generally exceeds the median, because it is more likely that a starting QB throws for 500 yards than 0 yards (and generally there is a lower bound of zero). The median passing yards for starting quarterbacks this season is 252 yards.

4) MORE SCORING = MORE PASSING YARDS? IT'S COMPLICATED: There has been plenty of discussion of the increase in scoring this season. However, much of this increase can be attributed to changes in officiating. As a result, the relationship between passing yards and points is changing. Over the past 10 seasons, the ratio of yards to points has averaged 16.0 with a standard deviation of 0.2 (high of 16.3 in 2011, low of 15.6 in 2013). So far in 2020: 14.9. The implications are that passing yards are not increasing proportionately with points. It's hard to tell if this is the new norm, but for the time being, it seems like a pretty safe bet that yards will lag scoring.
All of these small details add up to a big edge in betting the under on QB passing yardage prop bets. Going forward, I will almost exclusively target unders.
Today, I'm looking at:
BENGALS AT COLTS:JOE BURROW UNDER 250.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
RAVENS AT EAGLES:CARSON WENTZ UNDER 239.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
LIONS AT JAGUARS:GARDNER MINSHEW UNDER 287.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
BRONCOS AT PATRIOTS:DREW LOCK UNDER 220.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
TEXANS AT TITANS:DESHAUN WATSON UNDER 289.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
BET SIZES: approximately 2% of bankroll, with the exception of Deshaun Watson at 1.5%.
I send a newsletter you can check out that has all my bets that I send before games. Later this evening I'll post a couple more prop bets for the MNF games.
If you're getting slightly different pricing from your book, I estimate the push probability of one passing yard to be approximately 0.6%, which equates to about 2.5 cents per passing yard. I'll create some pricing tables that will make it easier to compare different prices across various books later this week.
Edit: MNF Unders:
CHIEFS AT BILLS: JOSH ALLEN UNDER 290.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
CARDINALS AT COWBOYS: KYLER MURRAY UNDER 289.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)

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r/NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season - #20-11

Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 20-11 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!

Players whose average rank had them land in places 20-11 are on this portion of the list revealed today. Players are associated with the team they finished 2019 with.
Below you will see write-ups from rankers summarizing the players' 2019 season and why they were among the best in 2019. Stats for each player are from this season and are included below. Additionally, their previous ranks in this long running series are also available for all of you.
Methodology
LINK TO THE HUB POST WITH A MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY
  1. A CALL FOR RANKERS just after the Super Bowl.
  2. Rankers for each team nominated players to rank. 10 Games Played Minimum Threshold. Players are associated with the team they finished the 2019 Season with.
  3. The Grind. Utilize ranking threads for individual rankers broken up by positional group. Users were tasked with ranking players within the following tiers based on their evaluation: T-25, T-50, T-100, T-125 based on 2019 regular season only. There were no individual case threads. There were no arbitrary position limit caps. Just questions and rankings.
  4. Users submitted their individual Top 125 list. Ranking out to 125 is new for this year.
  5. User lists were reviewed for outliers by me with assistance from two former rankers. Users were permitted to correct any mistakes found. Once complete, lists were locked.
  6. Reveal the list… right now.
So now, without further ado, here are the players ranked 20-11 in the NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season!

#20 - Danielle Hunter - EDGE - Minnesota Vikings

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R N/R 32
Written By: uggsandstarbux
Khalil Mack. Von Miller. JJ Watt. Those are the names that come up when you mention edge players in the NFL over the last half a decade. Yet none have as many sacks as Danielle Hunter in the last two years. Hunter is continually passed over in the conversation of edge rushers. Even among young edge rushers like the Bosa brothers, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Bradley Chubb, Hunter is forgotten. He only received 4 All Pro votes from AP (of a possible 50). He failed to make PFF’s All Pro team. Is it because he wasn’t a 1st round pick? Is it because the Vikings defense was already dominant before his arrival?
Hunter has improved every year he’s gotten into the league (88 pressures this year vs 67 last year vs 55 in 2016). His first couple years in the league, he rotated in behind Everson Griffen and Brian Robinson. Yet he holds the record for most sacks before his 25th birthday and was one of only a handful of players in 2019 with double digit sacks and 15+ TFLs last season. He earned an 89.0 overall grade from PFF and forced 3 fumbles this year.
Beyond the numbers, Hunter is a unit. He came out of LSU as one of the more raw pass rushers in his draft. However, under the tutelage of the mighty Andre Patterson, Hunter has become one of the most athletic, versatile, technical, dominant edge defenders in the game. He can beat you with a pure bull rush, but he can also beat you with his speed and agility. He’s picked up Everson Griffen’s deadly spin move and has the motor to work through double teams. He can win with an inside move, or he can play pure 3T for an entire game (a la vs NO). He’s got a great understanding of the game and is a force to be reckoned with. If you’re placing bets for DPOY in 2020, don’t waste your money on the big name guys like Aaron Donald (+750) or Khalil Mack (+1100). Don’t spend it on young up and comers, lke Nick Bosa (+1300) or TJ Watt (+1500) either. Place it on Danielle Hunter (+2300). He’s going to continue dominating as he gains more recognition and climbs toward stardom.

#19 - Chris Godwin - Wide Receiver - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R
Written By: MysticTyph00n
At the beginning of the 2019 NFL season Bruce Arians said:
"I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot,"...."He's never coming off the field."
Bucs fans thought this could be very well true in BA's system, especially with the departure of Desean Jackson which only really left Mike Evans as the only other real target on the team.
The 3rd round pick from Penn State showed up big time this year after having two relatively quiet seasons. Through 13.5 games (missing the final 2.5 due to a hamstring injury) he amassed 86 receptions for 1,333 yards, 9 TDs and only one drop(In fact he's only had 2 drops total in 2018 & 2019)He very well could have gone over 100 receptions , 1,500 yards as well as double digit TDs, but that's just projecting right?
According to PFF he was an absolute monster in the slot with an outstanding 96.5 grade, which shows he can line up anywhere on the field and still produce big time for the Buccaneers.
In 2020, I honestly expect Chris Godwin to have close to the same production, and possibly even better with how much he produces from the slot.
Please don't leave us…

#18 - Quenton Nelson - Offensive Guard - Indianapolis Colts

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 70
Written By: Zzyzx8
Selecting a guard 6th overall was a bold movie for second year GM Chris Ballard, even one as highly touted as Quenton Nelson. Casual fans hated it, while draft junkies loved it. Two years later, it’s become clear that the pick was a home run. Nelson’s selection single handedly turned around a unit that was largely responsible for a slew of injuries to Andrew Luck into one of the best units. Nelson’s second year was only better, cementing himself as one of the best guards in the league, a true road grader. He spent the past year terrorizing nfl defensive lineman en route to his second pro bowl and all pro selections. Plus, he pulled off what was by far the best touchdown celebration of the season

#17 - Jamal Adams - Strong Safety - New York Jets

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R 18
Written By: the_fuzzy_stoner robdog1330
I would just like to start with a moment of silence for the fans of the New York Jets after Jamal Adams recently demanded a trade from that inept organization with a dumpster fire of a coach in Adam Gase.
Anyways, after an incredible sophomore season, Adams has kept up with his awesome play in his third season as one of the NFL's best and most versatile defensive players as well as the clear-cut best player on a football team that somehow won seven games. Adams, also known as President 'Mal, recorded an interception (which was returned 61 yards to the house), 7 passes defended, 11 hurries, and 36 stops, but that's not all! Adams also garnered 6.5 sacks (which is amazing for a DB) and forced two fumbles (like this one he returned to the house on my guy Daniel Jones 😔). With his exceptional play, the star safety was named to the 1st Team All-Pro as well as his second Pro Bowl selection (an honor which none of his other Jets teammates got this year).
What makes Adams so special is that he is exceptional against both the running and passing game. Whether he's with Gang Green or another franchise next year, I'd expect another stellar season out of Jamal Adams in 2020 (assuming there is one) and even as a Giants fan who watched him dominate my team this past season, I really appreciate the guy's play.

#16 - Derrick Henry - Running Back - Tennessee Titans

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R N/R
Written By: broccolibush42
DERRRRIIIICK HENRY!!!
This part man part tractor was the plow that turned our barren field into a bountiful wheat field full of Nashville Hot Chicken. This beautiful muscly man with a poop rat tail decimated opponents and General Sherman'd the AFC South. Totaling at 1540 yards and 16 Touchdowns in 15 games, with 6 coming from a slow start in a Mariota lead offense, he caught fire and dragged his nuts all over teams like the Chargers, Chiefs, Jags, Colts, Texans, Raiders and was showing just absolute dominance on the field. (Sadly we arent able to take the playoffs into account otherwise i'd gush over how he embarrassed a couple of scrub one and done teams).
Henry has this certain tenacity and a godlike level of endurance that just makes him an absolute beast in the 2nd half. He is just able to keep going, and going, and going, until finally, players get tired of it and turn into lead blockers for him. He is extremely hard to tackle to. Take a look at this play against the Chiefs in week 10, guys just bounce off him like he's running through toddlers. Derrick Henry is so hard to tackle that, according to PFF, Henry had over 1200 of his 1540 total yards after contact. Like this dude was getting hit at the line of scrimmage and he is just like, fuck this shit, i aint no dion lewis, and keeps going. How is this guy even real???
Another thing about Henry is his speed! Henry is a 6'3" 240 pound dude running 20+ MPH down the field when he breaks the open one. Like look at this speed he gets vs the Browns in week 1. Or this one against the Jags where he outruns guys and stiff arms the ones who barely managed to keep pace. Speaking of stiff arms, Derrick Henry has one of, if not, the BEST Stiff Arm in the league. If I had to pick a way to die, I think I would like Henry to stiff arm me in the face running at me at 21 miles per hour with this face, because there would be no greater honor to a titans fan than death by Henry. That concludes my Henry jerk fest. Here are some more highlights. and here are the real link.

#15 - Travis Kelce - Tight End - Kansas City Chiefs

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/R 84 N/R 28 31 13
Written By: DTSportsNow
Travis Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft. He wound up missing his rookie season due needing to receive microfracture surgery on his knee over the offseason and dealing with a bone bruise during the season. Since then he's received 4 All-Pro designations and was named to the NFL 2010s All-Decade team. He's also become the 1st TE in NFL history to have 4 straight 1,000+ yard seasons. Not bad considering how his career got started.
In 2019 he finished his 2nd straight season of 1,200+ yards and 3rd straight season leading the league in deep receiving yards by a tight end (274). He finished top 4 in overall TE grade for the 4th straight year (85.1), and was named to his second 2nd-team All-Pro designation. In the Sunday Night Football contest against the Chicago Bears he caught his 500th career reception, becoming the fastest TE in NFL history to reach that mark.
There's no doubt that Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the game, and winding up in the top 20 proves many believe him to be one of the very best players in the league. Since Gronk's decline it's essentially been between him and George Kittle for the top player at the position. He's a key component of what Andy Reid and the Chiefs like to do on offense, even as stacked as the offence is. With a Super Bowl victory and a few records to his name already his legacy will be decided by how long he can keep up his premier play. His partnership with Patrick Mahomes should take him to a locked up Hall of Fame bust.

#14 - Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - New Orleans Saints

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 100 74
Written By: Dahki
In 2017, sb nation wrote an article claiming that Ryan Ramczyk wasn't a first round talent at LT. The site went so far as to say he would benefit from a switch to RT. In short, they ended up nailing that on the head. The three-year vet has spent almost the entirety of his career anchoring the right side of the Saints O-line after being picked at 32 overall, and boy, has it worked out for both the team and the Wisconsin alum.
Ram makes the /nfl top 100 list for two reasons. First, he was really good. Second, we really wanted to hammer in the idea that the Saints O-line as a whole was really good. Most notably, Ram exits the 2019 season with his first first-team all pro, and he was more than deserving of it. Similar to teammate Terron Armstead, Ram refused to allow Brees or Teddy to be touched, giving up no sacks on the season. Even better, Ram kept his QBs almost squeaky clean in the pocket, allowing just one hit on the entire season, good for 2nd best in the league among nominated tackles. And Ram didn't just do well in pass pro; he was PFFs top graded OT when run-blocking, showcasing his power and quickness from his spot. In total, Ram spent the 2019 season as the biggest challenge for opposing D-lines to overcome when facing the Saints.

#13 - Julio Jones - Wide Receiver - Atlanta Falcons

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
32 93 23 8 2 21 17
Written By: CokeZ3ro
It's a bird, it’s a plane, no it's Jet Jones! In his 9th season Julio continues to be one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL, and the undisputed best player on the team. He’s a force that defenses must give their full attention, and even then he can explode. Even when he doesn’t get the ball, his influence and abilities still shape the play, and better everyone around him. This past offseason Julio agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $66 million, making him the NFL’s highest paid WR, and extending him to 2023. Even though 2019 was a down year statistically, Julio continued to show why the money is worth it. In a “down year” Julio was 2nd in reception yards, 3rd in Yards/Game, and 1st in Scrimmage Yards/Touch, and made his 6th consecutive Pro-Bowl.
But stats can hardly capture the elite combination of athleticism and skill that makes Julio so great. A combination perfectly captured here where Julio is able to jump over the coverage of CB Leodis McKelvin and then tiptoe to complete the coverage on the way down. Later that same game, with the Falcons against the wall, Julio showed that no man can catch him in a 53-yard burst (shoutout to Jake Matthews for the Pancake Block). Julio utilized his route skills to make CB Pierre Desir eat turf before making a 34-yard reception; which likely would have been much more if Ryan didn’t underthrow it. He’s pretty good at catching too, exhibited as reaches over CB Quincy Wilson and manages to hold onto the ball through tackles from Wilson and SS Clayton Geathers to score. Doesn’t matter who you are, Luke Keuchly, Marshon Lattimore, AJ Bouye; doesn’t matter. bUt hE dOEsn’T gET tOUchDoWnS I hear the Fantasy owners say. Watch this and notice how often in the redzone Julio is serving to support his team (blocks, inside presence, taking double defenders), or is just ignored. He’s open more often people realize.
Even in a disappointing season for the Falcons, Julio continues to shine through as one of the NFL’s premiere combos of athleticism and skill. Julio is and will continue to be an absolute force for the offense.

#12 - Chandler Jones - EDGE - Arizona Cardinals

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/R N/R N/R N/R 60 24 100
Written By: Beehay
In my write up of ChanJo last year, I mentioned that the return to the 3/4 (even if it's under Vance Joseph) will be huge for his stats. And boy howdy was it! At 30 years old and after double digit sack totals for 5 straight years, Jones set a career high of sacks at 19 this year. He had 8 Forced Fumbles, 53 Tackles, and 26 QB hits. Most of his stats improved from 2018, some more drastically than others. His pass coverage marginally improved but why the hell would you really want him to cover guys? (Don't say it Niners fans, DON'T SAY IT)
Chandler Jones is the prototype for edge defenders. He is what all other Defensive Coordinators wish they had. Strong, fast, smart, consistent. Here's a guys opinion and a breakdown. Here's some highlights because not everybody watched all 16 Cardinals games last year and I don't blame them. I think he will rank even higher next year if he stays healthy because he will finally get to settle into a defense again. Even if it's Vance Joseph's.

#11 - Ronnie Stanley - Offensive Tackle - Baltimore Ravens

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R 97
Written By: Letsgomountaineers5
Where to begin with Ronnie Stanley? Oh, how about a nearly minute long clip of him absolutely bullying First Team All Pro and NFC DPOY Chandler Jones. You like that? (Sorry Cards fans, but hey we all know Chandler Jones is a beast). Ronnie Stanley was the best LT in the league. No wait, actually he was the best overall tackle in the league. Actually, Stanley was the best lineman in the league, bar none. I truly believe Stanley was a top 5 player in the NFL last season and even tried (and failed/came to senses) to argue Stanley as a top 2 player. His dominance on the left side of that line was unprecedented.
I know stats don’t paint the entire picture, especially for OL, but I have to start there because his stats were unworldly as a blindside protector facing the best pass rushers the NFL has to offer. Going against the likes of TJ Watt twice a year, Carlos Dunlap twice a year, Myles Garrett, Chandler Jones, Nick Bosa, Shaq Barrett (need I go on), he allowed zero sacks and six pressures on 445 pass blocking snaps. Of tackles with at least 400 pass blocking snaps to allow 6 pressures or less, he was the only one. Wait, the only one? Let’s expand. 10 pressures on 400 snaps? Hmm. Only Ronnie Stanley. 15? Hmm only Ronnie Stanley. 20 and no sacks? Only Ronnie Stanley. Unreal.
So how does he do it? Well for starters, he has an elite pass rusher’s explosion as an offensive lineman. He can pack a pop that will knock the best rushers off line or on their ass without overextending. Just ask Nick Bosa. Refer back to the Chandler Jones lowlight reel for a second and check out how often he simply beats Jones (one of the most explosive and best bending edge rushers in the game) to his spot time and time again. Stanley is out of his stance so fast it looks like he’s false starting and, be it film review/sixth sense/sheer athleticism (my money is on all three), he hits the pass rushers’ marks before they do. Sometimes, he even chips defenders to the ground he doesn’t have a responsibility for. Because of these reasons, he’s basically the only lineman in the game not playing catchup and is tremendously equipped to react to counters. In the run game, he was a driving reason behind that team’s record setting running success. He can be a mauler, but with his speed also can pull like the best guards in the game and lead block for some of the fastest players in the game.
At the end of the day, his dominance in both pass blocking and run blocking makes him a worthy top 15 player, and if not for a tendency to underrate linemen, I believe he should’ve been a shoe-in for the top 10. If you read this far, thank you. Now I need to go puke after that glowing endorsement for a Raven.

LINK TO 2019 POSITIONAL GROUPING TRACKER

LINK TO 2019 RANKER SHEETS

LINK TO HUB

Schedule Change

Unveiling of ranks 10-6 will take place Monday, July 6 instead of Tuesday. Unveiling of ranks 5-1 will take place on Thursday, July 9. Thank you!
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DraftKings Milly Maker Report: High Stakes vs Low Stakes

It’s that time again for another edition of the Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker Report. Since we’re nearing the end of the season I wanted to take a slightly different approach to the report this week.
Instead of focusing on the $20 Milly Maker, or including the big boy $500 Milly I’m going to do some of that while including the $3 $1.3M NFL Play-Action and the $4,444 NFL 600K Fourth Down.
All information that I’ll be mentioning and displaying comes from the wonderful world of Fantasy Cruncher and Lineup Study. There wouldn’t be a Milly Maker Report without a tool that makes it easy to analyze previous contests.
Before we jump into the report, I need to mention that the NBA season is here which means Team Rise or Fall is here to help you. If you’re new to NBA DFS or simply need a refresher go ahead and head over to our DraftKings and Fanduel NBA Strategy Guide.
Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

📷

Check out ROF Bets for Parlays, Player Props, and Monkey Knife Fight Picks!

THE CONTESTS

I know we all play at different price points so I wanted to use a wide range of tournaments when it comes to entry fees. Here’s how the contest look if you’re unfamiliar with some of these GPPs.
$3 NFL $1.3M PLAY-ACTION
Top Prize: $100,000
Entries: 515,259
Max Entries: 20
$20 NFL $3.5M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE
Top Prize: $1,000,000
Entries: 205,882
Max Entries: 150
$500 NFL $2.25M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE
Top Prize: $1,000,000
Entries: 5,000
Max Entries: 150
$4,444 NFL $600K FOURTH DOWN CONVERSION
Top Prize: $150,000
Entries: 143
Max Entries: 4

THE WINNING LINEUPS

This is the section that I find most interesting. If you’ve read some of the previous Milly Maker Reports then you already know the contest with the lower entry fees tend to have higher scores than the high dollar contests. What we’re about to see is just how big those differences can be... Read the rest for FREE here: https://teamriseorfall.com/2020/12/16/draftkings-milly-maker-report-high-stakes-vs-low-stakes/
submitted by TMayDFS to dfsports [link] [comments]

DraftKings Milly Maker Report: Weeks 13-15

What’s up party people and non-party people it’s that time for the Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker Report. If this is your first time joining the report, that’s your mistake but welcome anyway. The purpose of the report is to find trends and strategies that we can apply to the Milly Maker and tournaments in general. There are links to every post in the series at the bottom of this post.
One other thing real quick: The NBA season is here! If you’ve enjoyed the success of Team Rise or Fall through the MLB and NFL seasons get ready for more $$$. If you haven’t signed up with us yet now is the time. Make sure to check out our DraftKings and Fanduel NBA Strategy Guide to get you ready for the season.
All of the information below comes via the Fantasy Cruncher Pro Lineup Study feature. It allows you to look back at years worth of information. Lineup Study is a really valuable tool and I wouldn’t be able to write a Milly Maker report without its help.
Now, on to the Milly Maker Report!

📷

Check out ROF Bets for Player Props, Parlays, and Monkey Knife Fight Picks!

Using Vegas Odds to Win the Milly Maker

One of the most consistent trends I found from analyzing two years’ worth of Milly Makers is that 76% of the milly winning quarterbacks came from games within the top five for implied totals on the slate. Yes, it makes sense that you want guys from high scoring games, but it’s not always guys from the game with the highest implied total.
So as life goes of course Week 13 featured a quarterback outside of the top five but weeks 14 and 15 held to the trend. For the season 12 out of 15 weeks (80%) have seen a quarterback from within the top five for implied totals on the slate take down a Milly Maker. It’s honestly the easiest place to start when building your lineups.

Targeting Offenses and Defenses to Win the Milly Maker

I’m recycling this one more time because I think it’s super important: Analyzing 34 slates over 2018 and 2019 showed there were 10 different quarterbacks that won the Milly Maker in the 2018 NFL regular season and 14 different quarterbacks in the 2019 regular season. What I’m trying to hammer home is that you don’t have to use every QB on the slate. And in fact, you can see less than half of the quarterbacks win a Milly Maker in a given season.
So how’s 2020 going? In the first half of the 2020 season... Read the rest for FREE here: https://teamriseorfall.com/2020/12/23/draftkings-milly-maker-report-weeks-13-15/
submitted by TMayDFS to dfsports [link] [comments]

Tuesday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 12-8

Let’s dive into my Wednesday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it!
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Head over to ROF Bets for player props, parlays, and other betting content!

Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens O/U 45.5 BAL -9

Scenario 1: Game Stays Close

For this scenario, we want to theorize that there is either a defensive battle or a shootout. Given the state of the Dallas defense, a defensive battle isn’t likely but, I would account for this theory in 150 max contests.
For the Baltimore side, players that stand out to me are Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, and J.K. Dobbins. As of 1 pm EST, Mark Andrews and Willie Sneed are still on the COVID-19 IR. If they are in, they become priority targets as well.
I’m expecting Baltimore to run the ball at a high volume against a Dallas defense that allows over 150 rushing yards per game according to the NFL Study Hub. I’m expecting Jackson and Dobbins to be the main beneficiaries of the running game with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram mixed in. I would have shares of Edwards and Ingram in MME contests but, they are not part of my core.
For a shootout, I will toss Dez Bryant and Devin Duvernay into my pool. They are both cheap and offer salary relief.
For the Dallas side, players that stand out to me are Ezekiel Elliot, Andy Dalton, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb.
Assuming this game stays close... Read the rest for FREE here: https://teamriseorfall.com/2020/12/08/tuesday-night-football-showdown-gpp-picks-for-draftkings-and-fanduel-12-8/
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Official Week 10 R/NFL Power Rankings

Make sure you're sitting down, and check for yourself if you don't believe me, but we're already at the double-digit mark for gameweeks in the football season. That's right folks, it's already time for the Week 10 Official nfl Power Rankings! It's amazing how fast time flies; three months ago, training camps were wrapped as teams made their way through the August doldrums of pre-season football. Now look at us! Heck in three months time, not only will we have crowned a new champion, but Antonio Brown might have landed himself a paycheck! Between your prop bets on which prominent fast food chain will be the first to employ Mr. Big Collections, feast your eyes on the following list of teams. As always, these are collated from a representational slice of 32 hopeless gambling degenerates. 31/32 reporting.
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Patriots +1 8-1 Big run from here on out after the bye, starting with the Eagles. The Patriots needed the R&R to get healthier and to make the adjustments needed in readying for the playoffs.
2. Ravens +2 7-2 Lamar Jackson put himself at or near the front of the MVP race as the Ravens offense continues to dominate. Harbaugh and Roman have schemed the NFL's best offense by balancing the league's leading rushing attack with a passing game that uses all three TEs to much aplomb. The defense has moved past their early struggles with the addition of Marcus Peters and the return of Jimmy Smith; it now consistently gets pressure with a blitz heavy scheme.
3. 49ers -2 8-1 In an instant MNF classic, the Niners dropped their first game of the season. Without his two top receiving threats, Jimmy G looked uncomfortable in the pocket and had trouble throwing anywhere more than five yards downfield. Three turnovers turned into the only three touchdowns by the Seahawks. The defense looked impressive, but the short fields and poor execution by the offense wasted their effort. The team looks to regroup on Sunday in a home match up against the Cardinals.
4. Seahawks +1 8-2 Russell Wilson is now 13-3 in his career against Santa Clara "San Francisco" and 8-2 on Monday Night Football, there are no longer any undefeated teams left in the NFL, and John Schneider's trades look like genius moves. Jadeveon Clowney, Jacob Hollister, and Quandre Diggs all played huge roles in this win, and it looks like there's good news on Tyler Lockett's injury as well. Even Jason Myers redeemed himself. Phenomenal game that would have been heartbreaking to lose.
5. Saints -2 7-2 The Saints under Sean Payton have always relied on a strong OL platform to run their offensive scheme. The Falcons came in with a plan to disrupt that blocking and reaped the rewards with a decisive win.
6. Packers +1 8-2 The Packers got back into the groove with a home win over the Panthers. Turnovers and the fact that the Panthers defense couldn't find any solution for Aaron Jones were the main factors in this one. Aaron Jones splits time with Jamaal Williams, yet he was still exchanging the league lead for TDs with Christian McCaffrey throughout this game. Remember that name: Aaron Jones.
7. Vikings +1 7-3 Even in primetime against a team with a winning record, Kirk Cousins continues to put up MVP numbers, and even across from Ezekiel Elliot, there was no doubt who was the best running back on Sunday night.. Danielle Hunter ranks first in the NFL in pressures generated while Everson Griffen ranks third, and though the secondary still struggles in coverage, Eric Kendricks leads all linebackers in pass breakups..
8. Chiefs -2 6-4 A triumphant game from the Mahomes-to-Hill combination still left the Chiefs on the wrong end of the scoreline on Sunday. Unfortunately, though the Chiefs are stacked with talent in some parts of the roster, inconsistent play in the trenches threatens to implode this team's playoff hopes.
9. Texans -- 6-3 Dolphins 16 - 12 Colts
10. Cowboys +1 5-4 Like an annual ritual of an ancient cannibalistic tribe, the calls for Jason Garrett’s head have begun - and rightfully so. The inexplicable playcalling, ultra-conservative approach, and complete lack of in-game adjustments are hard to argue with. With a roster of this caliber, it’s hard to find fault in any area greater than the coaching. Heading into a slew of primetime games, the entire nation may get to witness the final fall of Garrett.
11. Eagles +3 5-4 The Eagles had a bye week in advance of hosting New England next Sunday.
12. Rams -2 5-4 With the season in a shambles, fans can spin the blame-o-meter and be happy with whatever space it lands on. Between McVay, Goff, the O-line, front office trades, and even the refs (at times), there's no shortage of awfulness to go around. It's not like the future is much brighter as the Rams' next first round pick is in 2022. Let the 8-8 McVay era begin.
13. Bills -1 6-3 The Bills came into this week playing against the 30th ranked run defense in football. Offensive coordinator and certified genius Brian Daboll proceeded call a mere 13 runs while dialing up more than 40 passes. The highlight was when the offense fought back from 1st-and-25 just to huck a gimmicky, one-read deep ball into double coverage on 3rd-and-4 because Buffalo isn’t allowed to have nice things. As for the two missed field goals that would have given the Bills the win: one supposes that's the football gods' way of making up for the team's win in Tennessee. Buffalo's fate is still in their own hands, but there's a lot to clean up.
14. Raiders +2 5-4 Chargers fans call Rivers "Dad", and following his stellar performance (2 ints, 1 TD, and a 3rd int called back) they are calling Erik Harris "Grandpa". After a coming out game for Clellin Ferrell the Raiders are now sitting just half a game back in the AFC west. The last half of the season is going to be fun to watch.
15. Steelers +3 5-4 People will talk about Russell Wilson as the MVP because of the impact he has involving other players at the QB position, but isn't it noteworthy when a single defensive player can improve an entire defense himself without directly giving the ball to others? Whatever Minkah Fitzpatrick is, it's by far the biggest impact on the Steelers this year and the sole reason they have risen from mediocrity to respectability. Fans expect Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson to change the face of an entire game (and they do), but there are a handful of defensive players every generation who do it, and it's usually a solo effort like Junior Seau. They don't often make everyone else better as well. If the Steelers actually turn this around and do something, it's because Fitzpatrick keeps it going.
16. Colts -3 5-4 The wheels are off at this point. But even in the midst of this nightmare season, Colts fans can enjoy the incredible tracts of real estate we own in the minds of the small-team Texans supporters. Even their blurb up the thread only talks about us. Rent free!
17. Panthers -2 5-4 News that Cam Newton's season is done has split the Panthers fanbase into two halves. The ones who want to roll with Kyle Allen are directly opposed to those who want Cam back in the fold for 2020. It remains to be seen which way the Panthers' front office will go.
18. Titans +4 5-5 The Titans let Patrick Mahomes put up the most passing yards (446) by any QB in Nissan Stadium, but Tennessee was able to survive with a last-second FG block by Joshua Kalu. Derrick Henry continued his success against the Chiefs with 188 rushing yards and 2 TDs. Somehow, Andy Reid is now 1-8 against the Titans.
19. Bears +1 4-5 When two bad teams play each other, technically the game must end in a result that changes the record of said teams after 60 minutes of playtime. Those rules were followed on Sunday, and there's not much fans can take away from the game except that it was nice to see the Bears beat a team they should beat. The Lions tried to avenge their loss to backup Chase Daniel last year by playing their own backup, but instead, they just lost. Maybe it was part of a deep state plan to keep Trubisky as starter, as The Onion suggested last weekend!
20. Chargers -2 4-6 The major takeaway from this game should not be the supposed decline of Philip Rivers but rather the importance of offensive line play. The Chargers played much of the game with 3 backups on the OL and the unit as a whole played unacceptably bad, allowing a meager Raiders pass rush to tee off on Phil. In comparison, the Raiders' OL had a significantly better game against the Chargers pass rush. At 4-6 with an 0-2 divisional record, the Chargers have their work cut out for them, even if the Chiefs are only two games ahead. The Chargers must beat KC in Mexico City if they want to stay relevant in the postseason hunt.
21. Lions -4 3-5-1 Many, perhaps most, Lions fans are ready to boot Patricia and Quinn. Maybe they are right, and it's time. However, it would be hard to argue that the Lions haven't been one of the most injury-affected teams this year, and when fans also consider that all but one loss has been extremely close, it's not so cut and dry. If they can finish strong (unlikely without Matthew, but who knows), it could reestablish some optimism for the future.
22. Jaguars -1 4-5 Minshew Mania is over (for now). It's time to give Jason Mendoza what he wants. FOOOOLLLLEEEESSSSSS!
23. Buccaneers +2 3-6 Bruce Arians coached with toddler-like petulance, throwing a challenge flag on a DPI he knew he'd lose, followed by a challenge flag he didn't have resulting in another lost timeout. Despite his infantile behavior, the Bucs managed to pull out a narrow victory over the Cardinals, bringing their record to 3-6. Rookies Jamel Dean and Devin White made a number of splash plays and Shaq Barrett continued his DPOY worthy campaign. This team is better than the record shows, but if my mother had wheels, she'd be a bicycle.
24. Browns +2 3-6 Relying on your opponent to miss a field goal to win a game is not a viable long term strategy. The Browns won, but it wasn't for lack of effort.
25. Cardinals -2 3-6-1 A dropped wide-open touchdown pass, a special teams mistake causing a six-point swing, and an untimely interception were too much for the Cardinals to overcome as they dropped their 3rd straight game. Aside from those mistakes, the defensive play has been absolutely atrocious. Sure, they caused some turnovers, but while the offense has been improving, the defense has been going in the opposite direction with the 2nd-most points and yards given up in the NFL.
26. Broncos -2 3-6 Russell Wilson is dummy thicc.
27. Falcons +1 2-7 Defensive play calling duties were split between Raheem Morris and Jeff Ulbrich for the first time this season, and what a game it was. Three of Atlanta's six sacks came on third down, which could potentially be a brand new sentence. Vic Beasley hasn't looked this youngry in years, and Drew Brees hasn't EVER scored fewer than double digits in the Superdome. Quinn made a great decision by taking himself out of the equation, falling faster from grace than any other coach in recent memory. Chase Young may be sitting in Flowery Branches' shopping cart at the moment, but no player will ever be good enough to make Atlanta want to lose to New Orleans.
28. Dolphins +3 2-7 We're sorry to interrupt your previously scheduled documentary on armored military vehicles, but we've got news of a disturbance going on down in Miami. Pardon me sir, did you see what happened? Oh yes, they call it the streak. They claimed 'nother victory. They're just as proud as can be, of their abilities. They haven't yet peaked!
29. Jets +1 2-7 The Jets' front 7 turned in one of their most dominating performances in recent memory by making contact with Saquon Barkley behind the line of scrimmage on almost every rushing attempt. The defensive gameplan forced the Giants' victory to fall squarely on the shoulders of Daniel Jones. Thanks in large part to the President impeaching the ball from him, Jones came up short.
30. Giants -3 2-8 The Giants are now officially the #2 team in New Jersey, with Pat Shurmur having now added Adam Gase to his resume of coaches that out-coached him. John Mara is angry, but he might want to take a look in the mirror because he hired the front office team that got us into this position in the first place. Once a beacon of hope and, in all honesty, many fans' sole reason for watching Giants games, Saquon Barkley has not looked anything like his 2018 self this year. If he is truly healthy, as the Giants say he is, one has to wonder what is going on that keeps holding him back game in and game out.
31. Redskins -2 1-8 The Redskins named Dwayne Haskins their starting QB for the remainder of the season, and fans are finally going to see the rookie QB get a chance to play and grow. Meanwhile, the race for last place and the first overall draft pick is heating up.
32. Bengals -- 0-9 If Mike Brown keeps getting rid of his scapegoats (Marvin Lewis, Andy Dalton), people are going to start to realize the real reason the Bengals are bad. He's an incompetent owner.
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kvothe1509 1.0 1st Round Mock Draft

My first attempt at a mock draft. I used odds from prop bets in order to estimate what "Vegas" thinks will happen Day 1. According to Vegas the mostly likely outcome for the 1st Round of the NFL draft is 4 QB's, 6 Offensive Lineman, 6 Wide Receivers, 1 Running Back, 0 Tight Ends, 5 Cornerbacks, 1 Safety, 5 Defensive Lineman, and 4 Linebackers.
This is the result.
1) Cincinnati Bengal's select Joe Burrow QB-LSU
Clear favorite to be the overall #1 pick.
2) Washington Redskin's select Chase Young EDGE-OSU
Not as clear cut as the Joe Burrow pick, but still a heavy favorite to be selected 2nd overall by Washington.
3) TRADE Miami Dolphin's select Tua Tagovailoa QB-ALA
The Miami Dolphins are the odds on favorite to end up with Tua. This combined with the odds for Burrow, Young, Tua being the exact outcome of the first 3 picks, makes me think that Miami trades up for, and select's Tua.
4) New York Giant's select Jeffrey Okudah CB-OSU
The sportsbook really likes Okudah. They have the odds of him going #3 overall, as very similar to Tua. If the trade to Miami happens. Then expect the Giants to pick Okudah as the odds have him as the BPA.
5) TRADE Detroit Lions select Isaiah Simmons LB/S CLE
Isaiah Simmons is all over people's draft boards as his value to a defense is hard to quantify. "Vegas" has his most likely outcome as going before pick 6.
6) Las Angeles Charger's select Justin Herbert
The Chargers have the best odds to select draft Justin Herbert, and Herbert is mostly likely to be drafted after pick 5.
7) Carolina Panther's select Tristan Wirfs
Odds have him as the BPA. Though interestingly they have him as most likely selected after pick 7.5. Getting the BPA at a position that you can never have enough of seems like a no brainer for Carolina though so I see them "reaching" above what odds makers think.
8) Arizona Cardinal's select Melkhi Becton
Odds have him as the BPA. Though interestingly they have him as most likely selected pick 8.5... Getting the BPA, and adding protection for their new franchise QB Kyler Murray seems like a good fit.
9) Jacksonville Jaguar's select Derrick Brown DT-AUB
Derrick Brown is another player whose draft position is somewhat hard to pin down. Vegas has him as most likely selected after pick 8.5. I personally feel like Jacksonville would rather select the best Defensive lineman in the draft instead of the 3rd best OT.
10) Cleveland Brown's select Jedrick Wills OT-ALA
If Cleveland wants to get the most out of Baker. They have to give him time to throw. Odd's have him as very likely to be taken before pick 11, and have him as the 3rd best offensive tackle. That combined with team need makes me fairly confident with this pick.
11) New York Jet's select Andrew Thomas OT-GEOR
The last remaining Big 4 Offensive Tackle is a good match for the Jets. Vegas think's it is unlikely he makes it out of the top 10, but someone has to fall out. Fortunately for the Jet's it's a position of great need.
12) Las Vegas Raider's select Jerry Jeudy WR-ALA
The oddsmakers favorite for the first wide receiver taken. This is another great match of team need, and most likely outcome. Las Vegas needs an exciting player to bring into the new city, and Jeudy is it.
13) San Francisco 49ers select CeeDee Lamb WR-OKL
Runner up for the best Wide Receiver of one of the best receiving class of all time is CeeDee Lamb. He makes a great addition to the 49ers team which prioritizes players that are explosive when the ball is in their hands.
14) Trade Philadelphia Eagle's select Henry Ruggs WR-ALA
Vegas is very confident that Ruggs goes before Denver gets a chance to grab him at 15. I don't see Tampa Bay selecting a Wide Receiver when they have Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. So I WR needy team like PHI, or MIN trade up to get their guy.
15) Denver Bronco's select Javon Kinlaw DT-SC
Very talented player which is projected to have 50-50 odds of going pick 13. Kinlaw add's a extremely talented DT to pair up with an aging Von Miller.
16) Atlanta Falcon's select CJ Henderson CB-FLA
Atlanta has managed to get 1st round talents at basically every offensive position. Hard to go wrong with the 2nd best CB in the class. Vegas has him going before pick 17, and this spot makes a ton of sense.
17) Dallas Cowboy's select K'Lavon Chaisson EDGE-LSU
BPA according to vegas. Also fits the Cowboy's draft needs as they've spent a ton of money on Dak/CoopeElliot, and will need to continue building the defense through the draft.
18) Trade Detroit Lion's select Jordan Love QB-UTST
Vegas views him as a back half of the 1st Rnd talent. Detroit uses the extra pick they got from trading back with Miami in order to, select a high upside QB that can eventually replace the aging Matt Stafford.
19) Las Vegas Raider's select Kenneth Murray LB-OKL
The back half of the draft starts to get pretty murky using the vegas odds. They have him as most likely selected after pick 21.5. However, the BPA is Justin Jefferson, and I don't see the Raider's selecting two Wide Receivers in the first round. Kenneth Murray is the next best play available according to vegas. So the Raider's select him instead.
20) Jacksonville Jaguar's select Justin Jefferson WR-LSU
Jefferson is the Best WR, and Player available. Jefferson's skillset matches well with last year's breakout D.J. Chark.
21) Tampa Bay Buccaneer's select Xavier McKinney S-ALA
Best Safety in the draft according to Vegas, AND the only safety with a 1st RD grade (RIP Delpit). Not exactly a huge need for the Buc's, but the odds on BPA
22) Minnesota Viking's select Patrick Queen LB-LSU
BPA currently. MINN probably wishes that Jefferson fell to them in order to replace Stefon Diggs. However, the draft is crazy deep at WR, and they won't need to reach for one here.
23) New England Patriot's select Kristian Fulton CB-LSU
50-50 shot at going above Pick 24. I have the Patriots over looking Fulton's character concerns here. Fulton could make a fantastic addition to the Patriots secondary playing with Gilmore.
24) New Orleans Saint's select Josh Jones OT-HOU
With a well built team the Saint's select the BPA Jone to help keep people from getting to Brees.
25) Minnesota Viking's select Denzel Mims WR-BAY
No one has had a better off season than Mim's he's looked extraordinary at both the Senior Bowl, and the NFL Combine. Great player, and will help the Viking's recover from the loss of Diggs.
26) Miami Dolphins select Austin Jackson OT-USC
An incredibly athletic OT. This pick will help Miami put a strong core around Tua.
27) Seattle Seahawk's select Yetur Gross-matos EDGE-PENN
Vegas thinks it's unlikely that Yetur make's it past Pick 27. As the best remaining EDGE according to Vegas, Yetur matches well with the Seahawk's draft needs.
28) Baltimore Raven's select Trevon Diggs CB-ALA
Baltimore happily accepts the best CB remaining in Trevon Diggs. He has the size, speed, and length needed to play CB at the next level, and will help Baltimore greatly as they try and compete for a championship in 2020.
29) Tennessee Titan's select AJ Epenesa EDGE-IOWA
BPA availible, at a team need.
30) Green Bay Packer's select Jalen Reagor WR-TCU
The only player on my list which didn't have a prop bet. Green Bay needs a Wide Receiver to pair up with Adams, and give Aaron Rodger's a chance to get back to the big game. Other wide receivers which could be chosen here (Aiyuk, Shenault, Higgins), all have a 2nd round grade according to the odds.
31) San Francisco 49er's select D'Andre Swift RB-GEOR
While the 49er's made do with a committee approach to the running back position in 2019. D'Andre Swift is simply to talented to let slip by at the end of the 1st.
32) Kansas City Chief's select AJ Terrell
There's 3-4 player's here which do not have a 1st round grade according to Vegas. I think AJ Terrell is the best of them. At one of the most important positions in the league.
Let me know what you think. Was an interesting project to spend time on.
submitted by Kvothe1509 to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

Super Bowl Sunday DFS!!

Here is mine and a co-writers picks for the big game. Let me know what you think. What players are you going to pick? Good luck and go win that money. Full link and preview below.
https://thescorecrow.com/2020/02/01/nfl-dfs-super-bowl-sunday-special/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday. There will be all kinds of money switching hands so good luck with all your bets. If your Super Bowl squares don’t hit or your favorite prop bet didn’t go as planned maybe your DFS roster will win you some money back.
Joey and Brandon are here to give you some Captain/MVP, locks values and dart throw plays for FanDuel and DraftKings single game/showdown contests. So without further ado, let’s dive in!
submitted by brandon_b15 to dfsports [link] [comments]

Team draft analysis (non-Orioles, Part 1)

Because there are 29 teams and I can't just make it really short, I'll put it into two parts so it's not too long. I'll go in the draft order, so in part 1, the Tigers will start things and the Cubs will end it. Part 2 will start with the Red Sox and end with the Astros. As with the Orioles, I'll even post a grade more for humor purposes than anything.
1) Detroit Tigers: Going all bats was completely understandable for a team with three strong arms atop their farm system (Mize, Manning, Skubal) and their strongest positional prospect being a 19-year-old Riley Greene. Spencer Torkelson and his strong bat is the obvious prize of the draft class, but let's go over the rest of Detroit's class. The Tigers went with Ohio State catcher Dillon Dingler atop Round 2. He's always been thought of as a strong defender, but with the way his bat came around to start 2020, his draft stock soared. And I thought it was a nice value considering he easily could have fit into the first round. LSU outfielder Daniel Cabrera could have easily fit atop Round 2 or even in the competitive balance A picks, so getting him in the competitive balance B picks was excellently done. He may not do anything at a super standout level, but he does everything very well. He'll be a nice fit in the 2 hole or in the middle of a big league lineup (5 through 7). Trei Cruz was probably a money saving pick, and the Rice shortstop did hit well in his college career and on the Cape Cod League. But he may fit better at 2nd base as a professional. Torkelson's college teammate Gage Workman was a solid buy low move in Round 4. He had a strong season as a 19-year-old sophomore and then in the Cape Cod League last summer. At only age 20 now, he could bounce back. Colt Keith was a strong Round 5 pick assuming he can be bought out of his Arizona State commitment. A two-way player in high school, it sounds like the Tigers plan on developing him as a hitter with the possibility he could go back to pitching if he's unable to cut it with the bat. Grade: A+ (Great draft for Al Avila and the Tigers)
2) Miami Marlins: Doing the exact opposite of the Tigers, the Fish went with all pitchers. It started with Max Meyer, who I fully expected would be the #2 pitcher off the board after Asa Lacy. However, perhaps Lacy's price drove them to Meyer, who was reportedly willing to accept a slightly under slot deal. Some of the MLB Network guys think his smaller frame could force a move to the bullpen, but I don't think so. Smaller pitchers have held up just fine as starters before. After Mad Max, the Marlins went with Oklahoma high school lefty Dax Fulton, Ball State righty Kyle Nicolas, Coastal Carolina righty Zach McCambley, Vandy lefty Jake Eder and finally USC righty Kyle Hurt. Fulton underwent Tommy John surgery in September, but we've seen that's not the big deal it once was. I think he'll be fine. IDK how projectable he is when he's already 6'6" and 225 pounds, but you could also argue he doesn't need much more of it at that size. He's already got a plus fastball/curveball combination with a developing change. Nicolas has a great fastball that can reach triple digits, a strong slider when it's on and a good enough curve. He doesn't have a long track record of consistently throwing strikes, which he'll need to do in order to be a starter in pro ball. McCambley has thrown strikes more often and showed better in the Cape Cod League than Nicolas last summer, but he only has two reliable pitches (fastball/curve) at the moment. If he can't develop a third, the bullpen may be his destination as well. Eder has enough pitches to start, but he'll need to become more consistent with his command/control. Otherwise, he, too, will likely be a bullpen guy. Hurt was a talented prospect coming out of high school and has enough pitches to start, but inconsistency has been a problem for him as well. Grade: B+ (Meyer and Fulton were good starts, but the latter four picks may or may not pan out as starters (if they do at all). That drives the grade down from the A range for me)
3) Kansas City Royals: Asa Lacy still could develop more from a control standpoint, but the well built Texas A&M lefty could have four plus offerings at his peak. I think he's got Chris Sale type of potential. Nick Loftin out of Baylor may not be a star, but he's a good bet to stick as a major leaguer for a while as at least a utility player. Ben Hernandez is a projectable righty from Chicago who goes to school just minutes from Guaranteed Rate Field. His changeup is maybe the best amongst all pitchers in the draft class. He impressed last summer at the Pipeline Developmental League and the Under Armour Game. Alabama outfielder Tyler Gentry quietly put together a strong resume in Tuscaloosa, has no major holes in his game and can play all three OF spots. Oregon State lefty Christian Chamberlain and Eastern Illinois righty Will Klein started for their teams, but both have had trouble throwing strikes in college. Both are more likely relievers to me. Klein shined in a relief role in the Cape Cod League. Grade: A (I thought the Royals nailed it with their first four picks. Chamberlain and Klein I'm not as high on since my guess is they'll be relievers, but the first four picks carry this draft class)
4) Toronto Blue Jays: They had to be thrilled to have Vandy's Austin Martin fall into their laps at 5. The Jays are already rich with young and strong position players and got even richer. Florida State's CJ Van Eyk has a quality three-pitch arsenal needed to start, but if he remains inconsistent with his control, I could see him eventually becoming a reliever. Jacksonville righty Trent Palmer threw a lot more strikes in a shortened 2020, but doesn't have a strong track record of doing so prior to that. I see him as a smaller Florida school version of Van Eyk. There's a strong enough arsenal to start, but will he have consistent enough command to do it? Nick Frasso out of Loyola Marymount is someone I think they'll try as a starter while knowing he could move back to the bullpen since he's done good work at Loyola out of the pen. Louisville outfielder Zach Britton is not related to the former Oriole and current Yankee, but I imagine he was a money savings pick to ensure they could sign Martin and Van Eyk. He's flashed some as a hitter, so maybe something's there. I can't speak about his defense since I hadn't really heard of him prior to the Jays selecting him. Grade: A (Getting Austin Martin at 5 pretty much assured them of a very good draft grade, and they got some quality arms and an under the radar bat after that)
5) Seattle Mariners: Emerson Hancock was once thought of as the potential #1 pick in the draft class, but an inconsistent shortened 2020 and analytics pushed him down some. The Georgia righty was a strong value pick for the M's at 6. Texas A&M outfielder Zach DeLoach didn't show much his first two seasons, but then raked in the Cape Cod League and was continuing to do that during the shortened 2020 season. Connor Phillips is a young junior college product with a lot of natural talent, but needs to become more of a pitcher than a thrower. He could be a boom or bust type of pick. Kaden Polcovich hit on the Cape and then at Oklahoma State in a shortened season. Ole Miss' Tyler Keenan will derive all his value from his bat. Cal Poly righy Taylor Dollard has pretty average stuff, but he commands it well and could profile as a #4 or 5 starter. Grade: B+ (Dollard seems like an underrated pick in Round 5, and I like mixing a higher risk/higher reward arm like Phillips in with him. The hitters aren't terrible, but not particularly anything special in my eyes)
6) Pittsburgh Pirates: 2nd baseman Nick Gonzales and South Carolina righty Carmen Mlodzinski were a good mix of high floohigh ceiling picks on Day 1. La Mirada HS pitcher Jared Jones is someone I thought could easily go higher, so solid value with him. Nick Garcia needs more experience having just begun pitching, but he impressed at D-III Chapman and did solidly on the Cape for an inexperienced pitcher. Jack Hartman and Logan Hofmann strike me as easy to sign guys. The former is a reliever from Appalachian State, the latter impressed in four outings as a starter at small school Northwestern State. Grade: A- (Gonzales should be a solid regular, and while the three pitchers taken after come with some risk, there's some high reward with them as well. Of the final two picks, Hofmann is way more intriguing to me)
7) San Diego Padres: Robert Hassell was an interesting pick with Zac Veen still available, but I love his hit tool and can respect them for sticking with their guy. Justin Lange is a very projectable righty who throws really hard, but he'll require patience. Owen Caissie has good raw power, speed and a plus throwing arm. He may even be able to handle center. We'll see how much he hits. Georgia righty Cole Wilcox didn't see his draft stock go as high as I and probably he expected it. There's definite reliever risk with him, but he's got as much upside as just about any of the second tier college arms in the class. Troy righty Levi Thomas is likely a cheap signing. He impressed in four starts this spring. High school pitcher Jagger Haynes is a North Carolina commit who I couldn't tell you anything about, but I could see needing to go over slot to sign him away from UNC and the Padres never shy away from high school players. Grade: A- (I was kind of torn between an A- and an A since I really liked the Wilcox value in Round 3, but not knowing enough about Haynes, I feel a bit more comfortable sticking with the lower mark. Strong haul for the Friars, though)
8) Colorado Rockies: Zac Veen was unbelievable value at 9 and has the potential to be a five tool player. Drew Romo is a very strong defensive catcher. High school catchers don't have the best track record, and we'll have to see how much he hits. Chris McMahon was an excellent Round 2 pick. He's a high floor guy who could be a 3rd or 4th starter. Sam Weatherly has excellent stuff, but I'm not convinced he has enough command/control to be a starting pitcher. Case Williams, I couldn't tell you anything about, but he's from Colorado, so he's got some experience pitching in altitude. Jack Blomgren was fine in Round 5. He can play shortstop, but I'm not sure he'll hit enough to be more than a backup or utility player. Grade: A (The Veen, Romo and McMahon picks really made this draft class stick out for me)
9) Los Angeles Angels: Reid Detmers was the easy part. David Calabrese was a strong 3rd round pick. He's got top of the line speed, can hit a bit and should have no problem playing centerfield defensively. Adam Seminaris is basically a poor man's Reid Detmers. The Long Beach lefty won't blow anyone away, but he's got very good command and could be a backend starter. Werner Blakely is an athletic, projectable high school shortstop from Detroit. He's committed to Auburn, but I'm guessing the Angels will be able to sign him away from that. Grade: A (IDK if this is the highest upside class, but Detmers is maybe the safest pitcher in the draft class and I feel like Calabrese is less risky than a lot of high schoolers. His plus speed and solid CF defense should play. Seminaris should at least be minor league pitching depth and could be more. I like adding a high risk/high reward pick like Blakely in with three higher floor guys)
10) Chicago White Sox: Garrett Crochet is a bit of a high risk/high reward college lefty. He's got as much pure stuff as any college pitcher in the draft, but he doesn't have the track record of the guys who went before him. Jared Kelley has the Emerson Hancock syndrome of analytics knocking him down draft boards, but he's a hard throwing righty (aren't they all that way from Texas?) who was a great value in Round 2. Adisyn Coffey can throw mid-90s, started his career at ASU and was slated to play for Louisville next year. Beyond that, I've got nothing. Kade Mechals had strong numbers in two seasons at Grand Canyon and was comp'd to Mike Leake on the draft broadcast. So basically, a durable innings eater. Auburn lefty Bailey Horn had a strong four game showing in 2020. Nobody seems sure if he's a starter or reliever long term. Grade: B (Jared Kelley is the one propping this grade up a lot. The final three picks are easy to sign guys who should help pay for him and Garrett Crochet. Mechals and Horn have had Tommy John Surgery before, something to keep an eye on with them)
11) Cincinnati Reds: Austin Hendrick could end up being a bit like Jay Bruce was for the Reds. You have to live with some swing-and-miss, but he can launch the ball when he gets the bat on it. Christian Roa has four pitches in his arsenal and solid control to go with it, but didn't put it together at Texas A&M. Jackson Miller is a high school catcher who doesn't necessarily stand out with any one tool, but is a solid all-around player. Mac Wainwright is a projectable high school outfielder who I didn't know much about. Bryce Bonnin has a four pitch mix, but he's been largely ineffective in college. He does have a plus fastball/slider combination that could play up in relief. Joe Boyle is strictly a reliever who can throw 100 MPH, but often times really struggles with his command. Grade: B- (I could go for a B since I do like their high school picks enough, but because none of these pitchers have really proven themselves even in college, I'm bumping it down a notch)
12) San Francisco Giants: It'll be interesting to see how the Giants try fitting two catchers, Patrick Bailey and Joey Bart, together. I imagine one or both of them see time at other positions. Casey Schmitt fits the power hitting 3rd base profile, although the 49th pick felt a bit early for him. He also pitched in relief for San Diego State and could fall back on that if he doesn't hit enough in the minors. Nick Swiney was used largely in relief his first two seasons at NC State, but impressed in four starts in 2020 to really enhance his draft stock. Jimmy Glowenke played shortstop at Dallas Baptist, but will likely move to 2nd as a professional. He hit very well in Dallas and will have to continue to be a big league regular since no other tool really stands out. Kyle Harrison isn't a super projectable high school lefty, but he is pretty polished for a young pitcher. ASU righty R.J. Dabovich has enough pitches to start, but has done better as a reliever thus far due to a lack of control. The Giants could try and let him start and move him back to the pen if he can't start. Ryan Murphy is a smaller framed right-handed pitcher out of tiny Le Moyne College in Syracuse. He's likely a signablility selection in Round 5. Grade: B- (Bailey was a bit of a strange selection to me given what the Giants have in the minors, but he did fit the draft range. Harrison had a bit of value to me as a mid-3rd round pick. The rest of their picks, I don't really hate, but nothing stands out, either)
13) Texas Rangers: Texas Rangers: Justin Foscue doesn't have loud tools, but does everything at a relatively solid level. Evan Carter in Round 2 may have been the shock of the whole draft. He's tall at 6'4" and seemed to have helium leading up to the draft. He could have projectable power and I imagine he won't be going to Duke now. Tekoah Roby is a HS righty with a strong fastball/curve combo with a developing changeup. Dylan MacLean is the second best high school guy in Oregon after Mick Abel. He's not as projectable, but the 6'3" lefty does have three average/solid pitches at his disposal. California high school shortstop Thomas Saggese is another one who had helium leading up to the draft. It sounds like the Rangers really like his bat. Grade: C (This draft class was interesting if nothing else. The MLB Network guys sounded befuddled over it. Because I think it's much more difficult to try grading MLB Draft classes than NFL or NBA Draft classes initially, I try not to go below a C or a C- with my grades even though others may grade the Rangers in the D range themselves)
14) Philadelphia Phillies: Mick Abel was a strong selection at 15. The Oregon high school righty has four pitches that could be above average or better. He could be a future ace. Arkansas shortstop Casey Martin has very loud tools, including top of the scale speed, but he strikes out a ton and his best season was as a freshman. Carson Ragsdale out of USF did well in four starts in 2020, but has a limited track record of starting and needs to develop his changeup if he hopes to stick as a starter as a pro. Baron Radcliff strikes out a ton and hasn't hit a ton at Georgia Tech. I imagine he and Ragsdale are signability picks to save money for Abel and Martin. Grade: A- (I'd go for an A if I were convinced Martin would hit enough to offset his very high K rate, but buying low on him in the middle of Round 3 was something I could get behind and I did love the Abel pick)
15) Chicago Cubs: Ed Howard is a high school shortstop who can stick there and be a strong defender. I think he's a high floor guy who still has more left in the tank as a hitter. Jordan Nwogu is like a left field version of Casey Martin with a strong powespeed combo, but you wonder if he'll hit enough. Luke Little can throw the ball 100+ MPH, but like Joe Boyle, has little control/command. He does have maybe an average slidecurve combo as well. The Baseball America guy on the Draft broadcast really liked Koen Moreno, a projectable high school right-handed pitcher from North Carolina. Others will probably like the Burl Carraway pick way more than I do. I strongly dislike it. The Dallas Baptist lefty has a strong fastball/curve combo. He's a reliever only, which would be fine to me late in the draft. But I don't really like using essentially a top 50 pick on a reliever only. Relief pitchers are generally very volatile and if he fails as a reliever, he's got nothing to fall back on. Grade: B+ (Maybe being a tad generous I really liked the Ed Howard pick, will adhere to the Baseball America guy on Moreno and was at least fine with the other two picks. I'm not saying Carraway can't/won't be good, but I don't like using a premium pick on a relief pitcher profile only for the reasons I stated above)
submitted by CharmCityDC2020 to MLBDraft [link] [comments]

CreateYoureReality NFL Wildcard Weekend Analysis and Picks (Also, Final Regular Season Win/Loss and ROI)

CreateYoureReality NFL Wildcard Weekend Analysis and Picks (Also, Final Regular Season Win/Loss and ROI)

https://preview.redd.it/rvtksaw21t841.jpg?width=698&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=95f40678737a0b6412efeddec62890674d6b9f4c
NFL Regular Season Betting Recap

Singles 134-141-3 (+12.57u)
Parlays: 9-15 (+85.66u)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-19 (-19.98u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-15 (-7.5u)
Teasers: 7-23 (-39.1u)

Overall Bet Win/Loss: 150-213
Units Win/Loss: +31.65u
ROI: 8.72%

Thoughts: Honestly, I thought this season could have gone much better. Of course I am happy with a positive ROI and almost 9% is great but I want double digit ROIs. There are many lessons that I have learned this year that will go into my adjustments of how I make wagers. I am also grateful to collect a ton of notes from this years regular season that I will use as positive adjustments in my algo for next year. I still have the playoffs to push my ROI into the double digits. NBA was the same, went 2.6% ROI in the REG season, and almost 33% ROI in the playoffs to bring the whole season to double digits. Time to get to work on the NFL playoffs and make this double digi happen!


https://preview.redd.it/mis03ly81t841.jpg?width=810&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ca4a87379c6397b507f1ba420b546baaf39f552

Saturday Games (AFC)

Interesting note: Over the last 15 years in the playoffs, the spread didn't matter 82% of the time. If you picked the game winner, they covered over 82%. In the wild card round its 89%!!! Focus on finding the winner.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-2.5): We have our first game of the weekend and it's the only game where the spread has moved through a key number. This started out as HOU -3 (-3.5 in some spots for a brief opening line) and has moved quickly to settle at -2.5. The other games have moved, but none through a key 3, 4, 6 or 7. My algo has this game as 22.5 BUF to 19.5 HOU. When you add in HFA it pushes this game close to a PK. A huge key for me in this game will be the health of Will Fuller. With him in the offense this year, the Texans are 8-3 and averaged 26 ppg. When he has been out they are 2-3 and average only 19.5 ppg. Houston took week 17 to rest key player. They will look to get a return performance from JJ Watt and hope to have Fuller in to give the offense some depth. Having one less reliable outlet for Watson could be a big piece against a very good Bills pass defense.
On the Buffalo side of the ball they did lose their last game of the regular season, but they were looking ahead to this game, resting most of their key players for the week 17 game. I think this is a prime game for Singletary to show what he brings to the Bills offense as the TEX run D is one of the worst in the playoffs. I will also look to Beasly for a lot of check down and quick slant opportunities.
Obviously most of these games can go either way. With the thought of defense is what wins in the playoffs, I am leaning with the algo and the Bills. I think this is one of the better games to put into a teaser. If you tease the Bills you get the number through the key 3, 4, 6, and 7 numbers. Plus, they Bills have only been defeated by more than a TD one time this season!

Tennessee at New England (-5.5): This is a really fun one to cap. TEN has arguably been one of the best offenses since Tannehill took over. He is 1st in ypa, and passer rating and they have been putting up mad points behind the running game of Henry and the deep balls to AJ Brown who is averaging 20 yards per reception this season. On the flip side of their offensive play is the argument that they really haven't been tested against a good defense. The only decent D that Tannehill has faced since taking over is the road Saints, and that game script was more shootout heavy. The Pats are sporting top defensive numbers and only allow ~20ppg. However, if you dive deeper into those numbers... They went 8-0 in the first half of the season and allowed only 7.5 ppg. Over the last half of the season they are 4-4 and have allowed almost 29ppg!!!
Oh boy...
So, long story short I spent the last hour or so typing up my TEN/NE write up and I didn't notice my laptop became unplugged in the process. It eventually ran out of juice and crashed before I had updated my draft. I am not going to write it all out again, sorry. I will give a TLDR and you will have the bets I make as a guide for this one.
TLDRetype: The weather channel coincidentally named the storm hitting NE tomorrow "Winter Storm Henry" That, the fact that Henry has been a Beast since Tannehill took over, and Draftkings offering an odds boost at 10-1 (from 5.5-1) for anyone to be the first TD scorer, has me looking his way. Edleman has battled some injuries the last month or so and because of that his targets total is at the good price of 5.5. He has been a reliable security blanket for Brady in the playoffs and looks good to return for this game.



Sunday Games

Minnesota at New Orleans (-7.5): Im sorry but after the Minnesota Miracle and then last years no call vs. the Rams....Does anyone else think this is just a year for the NFL to give the glory back to NO and have the lawsuit against them quietly go away??? Seems like a good reason for the Pats to not give a fuck in last weeks game... AGH, OK brain, I know its 3am and half of our article was written and then erased...but lets reign it in and get back to some logic over far fetched conspiracy theories. . .
So I ended up going to sleep there. Probably a good thing, haha.
Back to the game... One of the biggest factors in this game should be the losses of Mackenzie Alexander and Mike Hughes who are both ruled out for this game. This season, Alexander was the best performer of their corners and safetys. The others have been playing below league average. The Vikings do play extremely well vs TEs so that should limit the options for Brees which makes looking at his favorite target all the more appealing. His total is 8.5. This year he has hit 8 or more in 11 out of 16 games. In the 8 games since Brees has returned he has hit that total 5 of those 8. Out of the 3 he missed, one game was by 1 reception, and another game was a week 17 blowout vs. CAR when he wasn't needed but still managed 9 targets.
As for the Vikings props Cook and Theilen have had the most rest recently and if the game script goes in the Saints favor, this could lead to many throwing opportunities for Cousins. Cook when healthy is a beast in all facets of the run game but is a huge help when it comes to the screen game.
Overall, the Saints are wearing their white on white uni's of which they are 5-0 this year. Superstition dictates go with the white. :P ( https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/03/nfl-playoffs-wild-card-round-saints-vs-vikings-uniform-combination/ )
I will post all my props and picks for this game tomorrow by 2pm.

Seattle at Philadelphia (+1.5): Didn't we just see this a few weeks ago? PHL hosting SEA, the line opened PHL as a slight favorite, moved through 0 and pushed up to almost 3 around game time. Then SEA came out and won 17-9? It's almost the same spot looking at it from the outside, but looking at how some of the available players for both teams have changed we see a potentially different story. First off, in that game SEA didnt do too much offensively. They essentially rode the back of Penny's 129 yards and a TD rushing on only 14 carries. Both Penny and Carson, the backs that the SEA offense has flowed through, are out for the season and the replacements are old or unknown. Dont get me wrong, I LOVE beastmode and want nothing more than for him to go all "put the team on his back" NSFW LINK, LANGUAGE WARNING ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd_Vd43Vxa0 ) But to be honest, hes looking a little pudgy. Who knows, maybe his legs are still machines and his pudge will make him even harder to take down! All in all I think the Eagles D is a better match up for the other back, Homer, who is more reliable as a pass catching back. And to be honest, if SEA wants to win this game, I think they are going to have to unleash Wilson. They are going to have to let him be that special player that makes plays with his legs and his arm. Because of this I will most likely be targeting Lockett, Metcaf and maybe Hollister.
On the PHL side all I am hearing is how they won 4 straight to make the playoffs and no one is giving them credit. Well...they won all 4 of those games against NFC east teams. Essentially the worst division this year and two of those games were against the same team. One of which they had to generate a huuuuge comeback in a game they were heavily favored. Also, they only made the playoffs because someone from each division has to represent...So how much love can we really give them for their 4 straight wins.
So much of this game for the Eagles is going to depend on the injury reports. I am going to end the article here but wait to update tomorrow with injuries and props chosen for this game. Check back @ 2pm on Sunday.
I have 35u of Bonus to use on from Wildcard Reload Promos and Refer-a-friend promos. Most likely won't use all this weekend, they are good for a month.
Post Season Bets
Singles(0-0)
  • Devin Singletary 85.5 Rush and Rec Yards Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
  • Cole Beasley 51.5 Rec Yards Over (1.25u to win 1u)
  • Josh Allen 34.5 Rush Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Dawson Knox 23.5 Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1.1u)
  • Derrick Henry to score first TD (1u to win 10u)
  • Edleman 5.5 Rec Over (1.1u to win 1u)
  • John Brown & DeAndre Hopkins each to record 80 or more receiving yards & 1 or more receiving touchdowns (2u to win 57u) This is just a fun sweat. I actually think Beasly and Singletary will get more usage and Hopkins will be shadowed by White, but 28.5-1 in a playoff game with both teams number one deep threats seems fun.
  • A.J. Brown & Julian Edelman each to record 100 or more receiving yards & 1 or more receiving touchdowns (0.99u to win 52.29u) Essentially the same analysis. Fun sweat. Playoff teams. This one I think actually has a slightly better chance even thought the odds are much greater. TEN runs play action as the basis of most of their deep balls. Brown has been on point with that this year. Edelman is Brady's most trusted and longest tenured post season WR. Hey, maybe Brown breaks one for 70 and a TD early, thus allowing Edelman the opportunities to cover late as the Pats come back. Let the sweat begin! :D
Parlays (0-0)
  • Buf +8.5, NE ml, NO ml, SEA +6 (0u to win 48.73u) FB
  • NE ml, Beasley 51.5 Rec Yards Over, NO 1H ml, SEA ml (0u to win 31.4u) FB
  • Allen 34.5 Rush Yards Over, Edelman 64.5 Rec Yards Over, Thomas 8.5 Rec Over, MetCalf 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 45u) FB
Threw some of the Bonus money on Parlays. Why not start off the playoffs with a big boost! :D
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot (0-0)
Teasers (0-0)
Futures: This is for fun, I don't recommend futures often, especially this late as it's hard to get a good price.
  • Saints to beat the Chiefs in the SB (1u to win 18u)
  • Saints to beat the Patriots in the SB (0.5u to win 20u)
  • Patriots to beat the Saints in SB (0.5u to win 25u)

I'm posting now so it's out with enough time for everyone to read and use. Check back in the comments if you want to follow along gametime parlays I make.

Thanks for reading and good luck to all!! :D
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]

Super Bowl Sunday DFS!!

Here is mine and a co-writers picks for the big game. Let me know what you think. What players are you going to pick? Good luck and go win that money. Full link and preview below.
https://thescorecrow.com/2020/02/01/nfl-dfs-super-bowl-sunday-special/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Preview
Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday. There will be all kinds of money switching hands so good luck with all your bets. If your Super Bowl squares don’t hit or your favorite prop bet didn’t go as planned maybe your DFS roster will win you some money back.
Joey and Brandon are here to give you some Captain/MVP, locks values and dart throw plays for FanDuel and DraftKings single game/showdown contests. So without further ado, let’s dive in!
submitted by brandon_b15 to fantasyfootball [link] [comments]

[Discussion] Bargain Bin to Tendies, lets talk gambling

Hi my name is electro_nick_s and I have a trading problem

I also enjoy gambling, cough cough /wallstreetbets cough
When it comes to dynasty, it's no small secret that people equate player value to the stock market. Heck there's even a podcast named Dynasty Wall Street by the Dynasty Trade Calculator team. So lets marry two of these concept together and talk about players in with a heavy stock market mindset.
A few stock market and /wallstreetbets terms in case you aren't familier (BTW /wallstreetbets may use language you're not used to being around on reddit, be forewarned and just roll with it)
There's a bunch of other info we could cover from that guide but I'll let you read through it if you choose to.

Ok that's cool and all but what does it have to do with Dynasty?

Hold on I'm getting there. With that lens we can look at some free agents and discuss players in these terms. As an example, everyone wants to buy Tevin Coleman's option right now expecting his value to increase with free agency. The problem is, his IV (Implied Volatility) is much higher than most players making this build up to free agency more expensive than it should be for him, leading to IV Crush. Basically he no longer has the "what if" factor, if his landing spot isn't perfect. This means his price will no longer be propped up by the chance he could end up on the Chiefs and despite the fact that his situation may improve, you guessed the move right, you could lose value trying to buy right now because of it. Other players that could have similar situations happen to them include TJ Yeldon and Tyrell Williams

Ok then what is this post even about?

I want to start a discussion on players specifically the "FD" play, in what is relatively short terms for Dynasty. That means buying them now for cheap chEAP CHEAP and flipping them at different volatility points. I'll list a few but feel free to list some in the comments and I will try to edit them into the post a long with the user who suggested them
User Player Position, Current Team DD (Due Diligence) Expiration Date (Selling Time Frame) Expected Cost Ceiling Return
electro_nick_s Cameron Brate TE, TB Probable cap casualty, nose for the endzone. Read the link I put a lot of effort into this one Landing spot dependent. I'd flip after FA in a bad spot and hold to my rookie draft in a good one Unless the owner has OJ Howard, is a Bucs fan or is wise to his contract, you should be able to get him for a 3rd or cheaper If he ends up in NE, a late 1st to a contender
electro_nick_s John Brown WR, BAL Going to be a free agent. Was misdiagnosed when battling injuries in ARI. Had a cyst on his spine and after having it removed played all of 2018. I'd let this one simmer and flip near my rookie draft. The longer he's on a team, the more time people have to find out about the misdiagnosis. I'm willing to hold him into the season I would expect to pay some 3rd. The owner who has him knows he's going into free agency but may believe him to be injury prone An Early 2nd
electro_nick_s Demetrius Harris TE, KC Big and tall, athletic and looked decent behind Kelce. Was used a bit in the red zone. Andy Reid has a large coaching tree, someone off of his tree may sign this impending free agent A week or two after he signs with a team, if his landing spot is solid or better. Don't hold this one to long or it may burn you A late 4th may get it done An early 3rd in the perfect situation
electro_nick_s Duke Johnson Jr. RB, CLE With the Kareem Hunt signing, this likely makes DJJ expendable. Buying him purely assumes the browns will move on from him This is another move I would want to simmer on other team's radar. He is definitely a piece I would consider using to move up in rookie drafts and will carry more value then, than he does now. A future late 3rd An early 2nd to the team with a training camp injury
electro_nick_s Travis Benjamin WR, LAC Another potential cap casualty, He's put up in the past with targets. They may be hard to come by but he likely will be in a changing situation After free agency but before the draft I would try dangling a 2020 5th for him. Seriously he has very little value and someone may be considering cutting him A mid to late 3rd
Linus_techtips Mike Davis RB, SEA DD here "Would potentially keep him if he lands right" Some 3rd
fantasyschmantasy69 Tj Yeldon RB, JAC DD here "Would flip him after free agency" Late 3rd Early 2nd
electro_nick_s Carlos Hyde RB, JAC Probably a bit late on this one considering this morning's sleeper alert, but if someone isn't paying attention to his contract or the off season news, it might be possible to nab him for cheap During training camp Late-mid 3rd Late 1st to for a training camp injury
* All of these players are also guys I would consider using as trade chips in a rookie draft to move up if you're still holding them at that point
Edit: Adjusted Returns
Edit2: Added Hyde and a few other suggested ones
submitted by Electro_Nick_s to DynastyFF [link] [comments]

nfl draft prop bets 2020 video

2020 NFL Draft Prop Bet Targets - YouTube BetOnline Prop Odds for the 2020 NFL Draft 🤑  SBR - YouTube NFL Draft Prop Bets! 💰💰💰 - YouTube Most intriguing wide receiver prop bets for the 2020 NFL ... NFL Draft Prop Bets, NL East, 3/26/20  The Morning After ... 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bet Preview Show - YouTube Best prop bets for 2020 NFL draft  Daily Wager - YouTube Fun Prop Bet Options for the 2020 NFL Draft - YouTube NFL Draft 2020 Prop Bets and Predictions - YouTube NFL Draft Prop Bets Show

NFL Specials Odds and Props Bovada. Gambling should be entertaining. Remember that you always risk losing the money you bet, so do not spend more than you can afford to lose. Prop Bets on Justin Herbert in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Miami Dolphins at (-125) odds and the L.A. Chargers at (+140) odds are co-betting favorites to draft QB Justin Herbert of Oregon in the 1 st Round on April 23 rd. Herbert appeared to be a paper tiger (or a paper Duck) throughout much of an up-and-down career in Eugene. And the ten 2020 NFL Draft position prop bets that appear to be a wee bit favorable in terms of three thins, 1) value, 2) value and 3) value are … All lines come from BetMGM . 10. NFL Draft Odds, 2021 Draft Prop Bets. After a thrilling 2018 edition in Arlington, Texas, the 2019 NFL Draft, scheduled on April 25–27, moves to Nashville, Tennessee. The Arizona Cardinals own the first pick, and QB Kyler Murray seems to be the obvious choice for them, but DE Joey Bosa and DT Quinnen Williams look tempting. SI's 2020 NFL Draft Round 2 Prop Betting Guide We've broken down dozens of 2020 NFL Draft props so far and have collected them all in this one-stop shop article. Author: There are over 100 prop bets on the 2020 NFL Draft — everything from how many players from a specific school will be selected to whether pizza will be seen in the home of a draftee. Sports NFL Five biggest NFL draft prop bets at William Hill $4,000 to net $5,000 on over 3 quarterbacks drafted in first round (-400) $3,200 to net $5,200 on Jerry Jeudy under 12.5 (-160) The biggest betting event coming up is the 2020 NFL Draft, moved from Las Vegas, Nevada to the NFL studios and laptops from coaches, GMs and owners all around the country. There are many different prop bets offered by Bovada Sportsbook, and before you bet, signup and take advantage of a $250 Bonus. NFL Draft betting has become increasingly popular over the years with a wide variety of NFL Draft prop bets available for you to make wagers on at online legal sportsbooks. Pickswise experts have spent hours researching team needs, profiling players and reading scout reports to deliver you the best NFL Draft predictions , betting content, and NFL Draft picks . Best Rookie Bets For 2020 NFL Season By: Benjamin Solak May 14th, 2020 2020-05-14T11:09:03-07:00 The Draft Network Photo: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

nfl draft prop bets 2020 top

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2020 NFL Draft Prop Bet Targets - YouTube

Saturday Down South's Chris Marler and Tyler Huck break down the best NFL Draft prop bets from our friends at BetOnline.ag for the 2020 NFL Draft. TDN Fantasy gives you a look at ahead at the best props for the 2020 NFL Draft. Doug Kezirian, Anita Marks, Chris Fallica, and Joe Fortenbaugh from Daily Wager take a look at all the betting action around the first round of the 2020 NFL ... #BetOnline wants to give you fun at all costs and knowing how much you are waiting for the #NFLDraft they have created the most fun prop #odds. What do you t... Doug Kezirian, Chris “The Bear” Fallica and Preston Johnson discuss the best prop bets for the 2020 NFL draft, including how many Big Ten players will be sel... Our experts Jim Sannes and Gregg Sussman break down some of their favorite prop bets at the FanDuel Sportsbook for the 2020 NFL Draft. FanDuel Hurry Up is a ... NFL Draft 2020 Prop Bets and Predictions. Johnny Kent discusses the best prop bets for the first round of the NFL Draft that begins April 23, 2020 at 8pm et.... - - - - TIME STAMPING BELOW - - - - The Morning After is back! Ariel Epstein and Jared Smith update you on the best prop bets for the NFL Draft and they shar... The countdown is on for the 2020 NFL Draft and while hundreds of different betting options are available, mostly relating to the players and teams, there's a... The NFL Draft is nearly upon us. Let's walk through a few of the prop bets and see which side we like. Become a Real Jerome! Become a Channel Member! https:/...

nfl draft prop bets 2020

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